The Indus River at Guddu Barrage is experiencing a significant surge in water levels, surpassing 400,000 cusecs (4 lakh cusecs) as of September 8, 2025. This surge is part of a broader flood crisis affecting Pakistan, particularly Sindh and Punjab provinces. Below is a detailed analysis of the situation:
📊 Current Water Flow Status at Guddu Barrage
Inflow: 401,626 cusecs
Outflow: 380,896 cusecs
Increase: The flow has risen by 10,922 cusecs in the past 24 hours, indicating a steady upward trend .
🌊 Projected Flood Peak
The flood peak (maximum water discharge) is expected to reach Guddu Barrage on September 9, 2025, with flows anticipated to exceed 800,000 cusecs . This delay in the peak has accelerated evacuation efforts in vulnerable riverside areas .
⚠️ Impact and Preparedness
Evacuations:
Approximately 324,000 people are likely to be displaced across Sindh’s riverine (katcha) areas .
As of September 8, 128,000 people have already been relocated, though most prefer moving to embankments rather than relief camps .
Infrastructure and Health Measures:
Provincial ministers are stationed on both banks of the Indus to supervise evacuations directly .
Over 40,000 patients have received medical aid, and 900,000 livestock have been vaccinated as a preventive measure .
Regional Comparisons:
Punjab is facing more severe flooding, with the Sutlej, Chenab, and Ravi rivers experiencing “exceptionally high” flows. Sindh has offered medical assistance to Punjab .
📍 Broader Flood Context
Tributary Flooding: The Sutlej River remains a critical threat, with flows reaching 319,000 cusecs at Ganda Singh Wala and 564,000 cusecs at Head Panjnad . India’s release of additional water into the Sutlej has exacerbated downstream flooding in Pakistan .
Systemic Challenges: The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty by India has hampered data-sharing and flood coordination, complicating disaster management efforts .
💎 Conclusion
The surge at Guddu Barrage underscores the severe flood crisis gripping Pakistan, driven by monsoon rains and compounded by geopolitical tensions. With the flood peak imminent, evacuation and relief efforts are critical to mitigating human and economic losses. The situation highlights the urgent need for improved water management and bilateral cooperation to address future climate-induced disasters.
